CATTLE OUTLOOK – Ron Plain and Scott Brown
Ag Economics, MU February 26, 2016
USDA’s February Cattle on Feed reports said the number of cattle in
large feedlots on February 1 was down a tiny 0.04% compared to a year
ago. January placements of cattle into feedlots were down 0.6% and
January marketings were down 2.2%. January marketings were the lowest
for any January since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance
during January was also the lowest since the series began in 1996.
USDA estimates there were 27,189 cattle feedlots in the U.S. last
year. Of these, 2,189 had capacity of 1,000 head or more and were
therefore included in the monthly cattle on feed surveys. These 2,189
large feedlots accounted for 87.2% of fed cattle marketings in 2015.
The latest USDA report of frozen meats says there were 518 million
pounds of beef in cold storage at the end of January. That is up 1.2%
from the month before, up 5.4% from a year ago, and the most ever for
January. Frozen pork stocks were also record high for January.
Fed cattle prices were slightly higher this week in light volume.
Through Thursday, the 5-area average price for slaughter steers sold
on a live weight basis was $130.66/cwt, up 66 cents from last week’s
average, but down $26.03 from a year ago. Dressed steer prices
averaged $210.55/cwt. That is up 92 cents from the week before, but
down $40.82 from a year ago.
This morning the choice boxed beef cutout value was $218.83/cwt, up
$6.57 from the previous Friday, but down $29.01 from a year ago. The
select carcass cutout was $213.74/cwt, up $5.20 from last week, but
down $32.19 from a year ago.
This week’s cattle slaughter totaled 534,000 head, up 2.5% from last
week and up 1.5% from a year ago.
The average steer dressed weight for the week ending on February 13
was 891 pounds, down 8 pounds from the week before, but up 10 pounds
from a year ago. This was the 87th consecutive week with steer
weights above the year-ago level.
Prices at the Oklahoma City Stockyards this week were $5 to $10 higher
on feeder steers and on calves compared to last week. Prices for
medium and large frame #1 steers by weight group were: 400-450#
$210-$222, 450-500# $200-$217, 500-550# $175-$213.50, 550-600#
$165-$196.50, 600-650# $168-$189.75, 650-700# $156-$175, 700-750#
$156.50-$166.25, 750-800# $150-$163, 800-900# $139-$155 and 900-1000#
Cattle futures were higher this week. The February live cattle
futures contract settled at $137.55/cwt today, up $2.18 for the week.
April fed cattle settled at $137.00/cwt, up $3.05 from the previous
week. The June contract ended the week at $125.95/cwt, up $2.80 from
the previous Friday.
March feeder cattle ended the week at $158.65/cwt, up $2.78 from a
week earlier. April futures gained $4.23 this week to close at
$158.85/cwt. May feeder cattle settled at $157.40/cwt.