Monday, May 18, 2015

CATTLE OUTLOOK - Ron Plain and Scott Brown

Posted: 15 May 2015 01:23 PM PDT
CATTLE OUTLOOK - Ron Plain and Scott Brown
Ag Economics, MU   May 15, 2015

The May WASDE gave its first forecast of 2016 production and prices.
USDA expects 2016 beef production to be up 1.0% from this year and
they expect this year’s beef production to be up 0.1% from last year.
Slaughter steers averaged $154.56/cwt live in 2014.  They are looking
for prices to be $4-12 higher this year and about the same in 2016 as
this year.

USDA expects beef imports to decline 9.5% and beef exports to increase
2% in 2016.  This will keep the domestic per capita beef supply very
tight and support prices.  USDA is forecasting 2016 per capita beef
consumption at 53.9 pounds of retail weight; that will be the lowest
since 1952.

Fed cattle prices this week were higher on light volume.  Through
Thursday, the 5-area average price for slaughter steers sold on a live
weight basis was $160.82/cwt, up $1.05 from last week’s average and up
$13.87 from a year ago.  The 5 area average dressed price this week
for steers was $256.55/cwt, up $1.51 for the week and up $22.49
compared to the same week last year.

This morning the choice boxed beef cutout value was $262.69/cwt, up
$4.49 from the previous Friday and up $35.97 from a year ago.  The
select carcass cutout was $250.52/cwt this morning, up $3.72 from last
week and up $33.52 from a year ago. The choice-select price spread is
wider than normal at $12.18/cwt.

Cattle slaughter this week totaled 569,000 head, up 0.4% from the week
before, but down 4.5% from the same week last year. Year-to-date
cattle slaughter is down 7.2% and beef production is down 4.9%.  The
average steer dressed weight for the week ending on May 2 was 865
pounds, down 1 pound from the week before, but up 25 pounds compared
to the same week last year.  Weights have been up for 46 consecutive

USDA rated 56% of pastures in the 48 contiguous states as being in
good or excellent condition on May 10.  That is up from 53% good or
excellent last week and 41% good or excellent a year ago. 

Feeder cattle prices at Oklahoma City were mostly steady to $3 higher
this week.  Prices for medium and large frame #1 steers by weight
group were: 400-450# $295-$329, 450-500# $286-$314, 500-550#
$272-$299, 550-600# $247.50-$285, 600-650# $240-$256, 650-700#
$228.50-$242.50, 700-750# $221-$231.50, 750-800# $213.50-$225.50,
800-900# $192.50-$215.50, and 900-1000#, $189-$201.75/cwt.

Cattle futures were higher this week.  The June live cattle futures
contract settled at $152.52/cwt today, up $1.02 for the week.  August
fed cattle settled at $150.80/cwt, up 98 cents from the previous week.
October fed cattle gained 47 cents this week to settle at $151.67/cwt.

The May feeder cattle contract ended the week at $219.00/cwt, up $3.13
for the week.  August feeders ended the week 78 cents higher at

Vesicular Stomatitis Update

Subject: New Mexico VS Update_May 15, 2015

Good afternoon,

May 15, 2015 New Mexico VS Update

In compliance with the 2015 VSV Field Procedures, livestock on a Grant Co premises are under quarantine following private practitioner notification to Animal Health Officials of the finding of one (1) horse with lesions compatible with Vesicular Stomatitis. There has been no movement of livestock to or from this premises in the past three weeks.  Appropriate biosecurity measures are in place at this time. 

Producer and private practitioner vigilance for evidence of vesicular lesions in livestock and immediate reporting of such findings to state and/or federal animal health officials is essential for prompt diagnosis and control of disease spread and initiation of biosecurity measures to protect other livestock.
Kind regards,

Ellen Mary Wilson, D.V.M.
State Veterinarian
New Mexico Livestock Board

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