Monday, January 25, 2016

CATTLE OUTLOOK – Ron Plain and Scott Brown Ag Economics, MU January 22, 2016

CATTLE OUTLOOK – Ron Plain and Scott Brown
Ag Economics, MU   January 22, 2016

USDA’s January Cattle on Feed report said December placements were
down 0.8% while marketings were up 1.1%.  This resulted in the number
of cattle on feed at the start of 2016 to be down 0.5% compared to a
year ago.  Placements of feeders weighting less than 600 pounds was
down by 14.8% during December; placements weighing 600-699 pounds were
down 2.7%; placements weighing 700-799 pounds was up 6.9% and
placements weighing 800 pounds or more was up 10.0% compared to
December 2014.

The average price of a pound of choice beef at retail during December
was $5.972.  That was down 24.1 cents from the month before, down 33.8
cents from a year ago, and the lowest for any month since July 2014.
The December average grocery store price for all fresh beef was $5.885
per pound, down 10.4 cents from the month before and down 9.7 cents
from December 2014.

The 5 area average live price for slaughter steers was $124.70/cwt
during December.  That was down $3.60 from the month before and down
$38.40 from a year ago.  This is the lowest monthly average steer
price since August 2013.¬

Fed cattle prices were lower this week.  Through Thursday, the 5-area
average price for slaughter steers sold on a live weight basis was
$126.62/cwt, down $6.90 from last week’s average and down $32.89 from
a year ago.  The 5 area average dressed price this week for steers was
$202.00/cwt, down $7.57 for the week and down $54.03 compared to the
same week last year.

This morning the choice boxed beef cutout value was $225.43/cwt, down
$7.22 from the previous Friday and down $28.45 from a year ago.  The
select carcass cutout was $220.98/cwt, down $6.65 from last week and
also down $28.45.

This week’s cattle slaughter totaled 569,000 head, up 0.2% from last
week, but down 2.1% from a year ago.

The average steer dressed weight for the week ending on January 9 was
902 pounds, down 2 pounds from the week before, but up 13 pounds from
a year ago.  This was the 82nd consecutive week with weights above the
year-ago level.

Prices at the Oklahoma City Stockyards this week were $6 to $8 lower
on feeder steers and $10-$15 lower on calves than last week.  Prices
for medium and large frame #1 steers by weight group were: 400-450#
$204-$226, 450-500# $198-$214.50, 500-550# $183.50-$199, 550-600#
$168-$185.50, 600-650# $162-$169, 650-700# $145-$167.50, 700-750#
$152-$165.50, 750-800# $147.50-$155.50, 800-900# $137.50-$149.75 and
900-1000# $138-$142.25/cwt.

Cattle futures were higher this week.  The February live cattle
futures contract settled at $132.07/cwt today, up $4.52 for the week.
April fed cattle settled at $133.07/cwt, up $4.57 from the previous
week.  The June contract ended the week at $123.85/cwt, up $4.10 from
the previous Friday.

January feeder cattle ended the week at $159.42/cwt, up $5.12 from a
week earlier.  March futures gained $7.63 this week to close at
$157.90/cwt.  April settled at $157.82/cwt.

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