Quay County Beef Producers Workshop

The Quay County Extension Office will be hosting a “Beef Producers workshop” on February 22,2017 at the Tucumcari Convention Center. Topics that will be discussed are Rangeland Nutrition with Nick Ashcroft NMSU Rangeland Specialist, Applied Reproductive technologies with Craig Gifford NMSU Extension Beef Specialist, Grow safe System with Marcy Ward NMSU Extension Livestock Specialist, and Beef Cattle Vaccinations with John Wenzel NMSU Extension Veterinarian. The program begins at 8:30 am and is free and open to the public. Please RSVP by February 17^th at the Quay County Extension Office at 216 E. Center Street, Tucumcari, NM (575)461-0562.

CATTLE OUTLOOK – Ron Plain and Scott Brown Ag Economics, MU December 9, 2016

CATTLE OUTLOOK – Ron Plain and Scott Brown

Ag Economics, MU   December 9, 2016

USDA made modest changes to 2017 beef projections in today’s monthly

WASDE release. The 2017 average mid-point fed steer price is now

projected at $107/cwt., up $1 from the projection made in November.

Despite the slightly higher projection, USDA still pegs next year’s

fed steer price more than 10% lower than 2016. Beef production is

estimated at 26 billion pounds for 2017, up 800 million pounds from

this year and the largest since 2011.

Cattle and beef prices lost some ground this week. Through Thursday,

the 5-area average price for slaughter steers sold on a live weight

basis was $110.31/cwt, down $4.07 from last week's average, and $8.14

lower than a year ago. The 5-area dressed steer price averaged

$170.50/cwt, down $4.87 from the week before, and $16.87 below last

year’s level. These losses erased last week’s gains and then some.

Beef cutout values were down this week, though not as much as the

cattle. This morning, the choice boxed beef cutout value was

$190.25/cwt, down just $0.04 from the previous Friday, but $12.80

lower than a year ago. The select carcass cutout this morning was

$171.85/cwt, down $1.74 from last week. At $18.40/cwt, the

choice-select spread remains relatively high, even accounting for

holiday beef demand.

Beef exports in October were at the highest level since August 2014.

Shipments to Japan and Korea continue to run well above last year’s

levels, with the YTD growth in those two markets now near 23 percent.

Total U.S. beef exports are now nine percent higher on the year, with

further gains needed to support prices as beef production increases

continue.

Preliminary December consumer confidence numbers were just shy of the

highest levels since 2004, with much of the consumer optimism centered

on expectations for President-elect Trump’s economic policies. This

bodes well for domestic meat demand moving forward, a necessary

condition to move heavy meat supplies for the next couple of years.

This week's cattle slaughter totaled 611,000 head, down 5,000 head

from last week but up 5.3% from a year ago. The average steer dressed

weight for the week ending on November 26 was 916 pounds, 2 pounds

lighter than the week before, and down 7 pounds from a year ago.

Cattle prices were steady to lower this week at the Oklahoma City

auction. Feeder steer prices were steady to $5 lower with steer calves

steady to $3 lower compared to the week before. Prices for medium and

large frame #1 steers by weight group were: 400-450# $169.50-180,

450-500# $150-$170, 500-550# $140-$165, 550-600# $136-$151, 600-650#

$120-$141.50, 650-700# $124.50-$137, 700-750# $119-$133, 750-800#

$125.50-$133.50, 800-900# $120-$135, and 900-1000# $124-$132.75/cwt.

Cattle futures were higher this week even as cash prices declined. The

December live cattle futures contract settled at $108.90/cwt today, up

$0.68 for the week. February live cattle gained $1.88 this week and

closed at $110.75/cwt. The April contract settled at $110.22.

The January feeder cattle futures contract ended the week at

$125.97/cwt, up $1.37 from a week earlier. March feeder cattle gained

$1.08 this week to settle at $122.60/cwt. April feeder cattle settled

at $121.90/cwt.

COW/CALF CORNER The Newsletter From the Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service December 12, 2016 Meat trade positive for livestock markets

COW/CALF CORNER

The Newsletter

From the Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service

December 12, 2016

Meat trade positive for livestock markets

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

October meat trade was positive for pork, poultry and beef.  Pork exports were up 9.1 percent year over year for the month leading to a year to date total up 2.0 percent.  Broiler exports were up 8.1 percent in October compared to last year.  Year to date broiler exports for the first ten months of the year are up 2.5 percent over one year ago.  Beef exports in October were 16.9 percent above last year with year to date beef exports up 9.4 percent. Meat exports have accelerated recently with year over year July to October pork exports up 6.3 percent; broiler exports up 14.5 percent; and beef exports up 20.3 percent.  Moving additional meat offshore helps to moderate growing U.S. meat supplies due to increased pork, poultry and beef production in 2016.  The U.S. dollar continues strong and will continue to represent a headwind for meat exports but exports continue to grow despite this adversity.

Beef exports are strong to most Asian markets with South Korea up 66.0 percent in October compared to last year and up 35.2 percent for the year to date.  Exports to Japan were up 35.9 percent year over year in October and are up 15.9 percent for the first ten months of the year.  Taiwan and Vietnam are smaller beef export markets but were up 91.3 and 71.4 percent respectively in October compared to last year.  Hong Kong, however, was down 14.7 percent in October and is down 5.6 percent so far this year.  In North America, beef exports to Mexico were down 12.1 percent year over year in October but remain 8.5 percent higher for the year to date so far this year.  U.S beef exports to Canada in October were down 5.9 percent and contributed to an 8.0 percent year over year decrease for the first ten months of the year.

Conversely, total beef imports continued declining in October, down 4.9 percent year over year and are down 13.1 percent for the January to October period compared to last year.  After rising sharply in 2014 and 2015, beef imports from Australia were down 51.6 percent year over year in October and are down 39.4 percent so far this year compared to the same period last year.  Beef imports from New Zealand were 9.0 percent lower in October than one year ago and are down 7.8 percent through October this year compared to last year.  October beef imports from Mexico were up 58.3 percent over last year and are up 17.7 percent for the year to date.  Beef imports from Canada are also up; increasing 27.8 percent in October over last year and up 15.6 percent for the January to October total compared to last year.  Beef imports from Brazil were up 30.8 percent year over year in October.  This would include the first fresh beef shipments under the new beef trade agreement between the U.S. and Brazil.  For the year to date, beef imports from Brazil are down 13.4 percent from year ago levels. Just smaller than Brazil as beef import sources, beef imports from Uruguay are down 16.9 percent for the year to date while Nicaragua is up 3.4 percent so far this year over the same period in 2015.

Total cattle imports were down 29.9 percent in October and 19.3 percent for the year to date compared to last year.  This includes 9.0 percent fewer cattle from Canada and 27.1 percent less cattle from Mexico so far this year compared to the same period in 2015.  More slaughter cattle have been imported from Canada including 43.0 percent more slaughter steers and heifers that more than offsets a 6.7 percent decrease in imported slaughter cows and bulls.  Overall slaughter cattle imports from Canada are up 17.7 percent year over year so far this year.  Feeder cattle imports from Canada are down 41.2 percent year over year through October.  Mexican feeder cattle imports were down 50.5 percent year over year in October and total cattle imports from Mexico are down 27.1 percent through October compared to last year.  Reduced feeder cattle imports from Canada and Mexico are providing a significant offset to the larger 2016 U.S. calf crop, thereby limiting the increase in feeder supplies in 2016.

Oklahoma State University, in compliance with Title VI and VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Executive Order 11246 as amended, Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972, Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, and other federal laws and regulations, does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, age, religion, disability, or status as a veteran in any of its policies, practices or procedures. This includes but is not limited to admissions, employment, financial aid, and educational services.  References within this publication to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, service mark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply endorsement by Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service.