COW/CALF
CORNER
The
Newsletter
From
the Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service
December
18, 2017
In this issue:
Beef consumption
and beef demand
Derrell S. Peel,
Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
Repeatability of
calving difficulty
Glenn Selk,
Oklahoma State University Emeritus Extension Animal Scientist
Just how do
Santa's reindeer get the job done?
Glenn Selk,
Oklahoma State University Emeritus Extension Animal Scientist
Beef consumption
and beef demand
Derrell S. Peel,
Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
U.S.
domestic beef consumption is projected to be 56.6 pounds per capita for 2017,
up from 55.4 pounds in 2016 (retail weight). That is a 2.2 percent year
over year increase. Beef consumption is higher because beef
production is increasing; in fact, it is projected to be up 3.8 percent year
over year from 2016.
Domestic
consumption is up less, in percentage terms, than beef production for a couple
of reasons. First, growth in beef exports in 2017, projected to be up
12-13 percent over 2016, moves some of the additional production
off-shore. That, along with minor adjustments in ending stocks, will
result in a total domestic supply (disappearance) that is up roughly 2.8
percent year over year. Finally, though U.S. population grows slowly, it
does still grow, so per capita consumption will increase even more slowly when
the total domestic supply is spread across a larger U.S. population.
Per
capita beef consumption bottomed recently in 2015 at 54.0 pounds, so the 2017
level represents a 2.6 pounds per capita increase in beef consumption the past
two years. Beef production and consumption are projected to increase
again in 2018, with a forecast increase in beef production of 4.5 percent
resulting in per capita consumption of 57.8 pounds, a 2.1 percent additional
increase in per capita beef consumption.
Increased
beef consumption does not, by itself, indicate anything about beef
demand. We are consuming more beef because we are producing more
beef. The question of beef demand hinges on the question of “at what
price will consumers eat this additional beef?” In general, we expect
that increasing supplies will result in lower prices but how much lower is the
key.
Demand
has been a pleasant surprise in 2017. Retail beef prices are currently
higher than last year despite the increase in beef supplies in 2017. Beef
demand is all the more impressive given that total meat supplies are higher
year over year, not only the result of more beef, but also increased pork and
poultry production. November retail Choice beef prices were $5.81/lb., up
from 5.76/lb. in October and above that same level of $5.76/lb. one year
ago. The all-fresh retail beef price was $5.64/lb. in November, up from
$5.62/lb. in October and above the November, 2016 price of
$5.59/lb. The ratio of retail beef prices relative to pork and
poultry remains very strong, holding near to record levels achieved during the
record high prices in 2015. The calculated beef demand index, which accounts
for pork and poultry impacts as well as increased beef production, showed a
slight increase for the third quarter of 2017.
Retail
beef prices are expected to decrease in 2018 given additional beef supplies.
This will put additional pressure on wholesale beef prices as well as fed and
feeder cattle prices. However, if demand continues strong, the retail
price pressure may be rather modest with less negative impact on wholesale beef
and cattle markets. Strong demand will depend on a continuation of
generally strong macroeconomic conditions including decreased unemployment and
income growth. Any change in overall macroeconomic conditions is a threat
and factors to watch include rising interest rates and inflationary
pressures. Shocks external to the beef industry, for example, a sudden
jump in gasoline prices, could sharply impact consumer spending and beef
demand.
Continued
improvement in beef trade will also be a crucial factor to minimizing price
pressure in 2018. Continued strong exports to current major beef
destinations including Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Canada and Hong Kong will be
essential. New export growth to China is likely to remain a
small market in 2018 but holds significant potential over time.
Repeatability of
calving difficulty
Glenn Selk,
Oklahoma State University Emeritus Extension Animal Scientist
Recently
an Oklahoma cow/calf producer asked about the repeatability of calving
difficulty in young cows. He had a two-year-old heifer that endured a
very difficult delivery. After the event is over and the cow and calf are
doing well, the rancher can’t help but ask the question: “If a heifer has
calving difficulty this year, what is the likelihood that she will have trouble
again next year?” That question is followed by the thought of the money
invested in this young heifer to grow her to a two-year old. Should she
be culled next fall because of calving difficulty this spring?
A
look back through the scientific literature sheds some light on this
subject. Research conducted by Colorado State University and published in
1973 looked at parturition records of 2733 Hereford calves sired by 123 bulls
and born to 778 cows/heifers. (Source: Brinks, et al. Journal of Animal
Science 1973 Vol. 36 pp 11-17) .A repeatability estimate was obtained from
heifers calving both as 2 year- and 3-year-olds. The estimate was
4.5%. Of 195 heifers which had no difficulty in calving at two years of
age, 7.2% had difficulty as 3 year olds. Of the 77 two-year old heifers
which experienced calving difficulty, 11.7% had difficulty again as
3-year-olds.
Heifers
that experienced calving difficulty as 2 year-olds weaned 59% of calves born,
whereas, those having no difficulty weaned 70% of calves born. Calving
difficulty as 2 year-olds affected the number of calves weaned when 3 years of
age and also the weaning weight of those calves. Heifers having calving
difficulty as 2-year-olds weaned a 63% calf crop as 3-year-olds. Heifers
having no difficulty as 2 years-olds weaned a 77% calf crop as three-year-olds.
From
this research we learned that calving difficulty as a two-year-old had a
profound effect on productivity. The likelihood that calving difficulty
will happen again next year is only slightly greater than in heifer
counterparts that calved unassisted this year. Proper heifer
development to a body condition score of 5.5 or 6 at calving, along with
breeding heifers to low birth weight EPD bulls should help reduce calving
difficulty in two-year olds.
Just how do
Santa's reindeer get the job done?
Glenn Selk,
Oklahoma State University Emeritus Extension Animal Scientist
Have
you ever wondered how Santa's reindeer can make that monumental journey on
Christmas Eve? Let's look into some key facts about reindeer that may
help us understand how they get Ole St. Nick on his appointed rounds over the
world.
First
of all, historians report that reindeer have been domesticated by humans for
over 5000 years. Since Santa himself is no spring chicken, we can assume
that they have worked together for quite awhile. They should not have any
trouble finding their way around. There is no need to worry about them
getting lost.
We
do know that reindeer are ruminants. They are like cattle in this
regard. They have four compartments to their stomach. Of course
Santa gets them filled up with hay and moss before he leaves the North Pole, so
they should have plenty of feed stored in the four compartments to make it all
around the globe. Also, cattle nutritionists have known for years that
hay digests more slowly than grain, therefore the big meal that the reindeer
eat before the journey should last even longer. Or just like your mom
says "It'll stick to their ribs!"
As
for drinking water that should be no problem whatsoever. In their
homeland the water is all frozen so they are used to getting the moisture they
need by eating snow. So as the sleigh is parked on snowy rooftops in cold
weather cities, the reindeer can take on the moisture they need if they get
thirsty.
How
do they keep warm while flying around on Christmas Eve? The reindeer coat
is made of two layers; an outer layer of bristles and an inner layer of dense
fur. The fur that they have is very thick and can hold a lot of
air. The "blanket" of insulation combining fur and air helps
keep them warm in even the coldest of climates. Plus flying around
Christmas night in many areas of the world that are warmer than they have at
home should not be a problem.
How
do they fly? Well that’s a tougher question, but let’s look at what we do
know about them. Reindeer are amazingly fast runners on the ground.
University of Alaska researchers report that a newborn baby reindeer at one day
of age can out run the fastest graduate student. By the time that they
are fully grown it is hard to tell what speeds that they could reach.
Next remember those huge antlers. Antlers of adult male reindeer can be
as much as 4 feet long! Just think about it. Each reindeer has 2
sets; that’s 8 feet of antlers and with eight reindeer, or nine, if we count
Rudolph on foggy nights, that is 64 to 72 feet of total antler span. A
typical small Cessna airplane only has about 36 feet of wingspan.
Certainly it seems feasible those eight reindeer running that fast with all
that antler span could get off the ground.
There
are a couple of myths about reindeer that we should clear up. You have
probably heard the poem that says that they have tiny reindeer feet.
Actually they have a very wide large hoof that they use at home to dig through
the snow to find grass and moss to eat. You've got to think that those
wide hooves would come in handy for sliding to rather sudden stops on the small
landing sites that Santa has to work with on Christmas Eve.
And
you've probably heard the song about “up on the house top click, click,
click”. Well it is true that reindeer do make a clicking sound as they
walk. They have a tendon that snaps over a bone joint and makes a
clicking sound on every step.
These
are just a few facts about Santa's Reindeer. Maybe this will help us
understand that age-old mystery that occurs every Christmas Eve.
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